We have previously stated the reasons why ISIL The Invincible won't be destroyed by a military campaign or a drone campaign or some other type of campaign. We have also stated how ludicrous are the current "master plans" to so doing (see The New US Strategy Against ISIL - Death By Laughter). With that we thought that the ISIL/ISIS "thing" in our site would be done and done, but apparently not. As you know a few days back ISIL massacred a few Christians and the whole world is up in arms. However, when ISIL massacred 1700 Iraqi soldiers in their "glorious" campaign to establish the Caliphate in Iraq, nobody blinked. Oh… well… it obvious that a few Christians (however Coptic) are far more valuable than 1700 Iraqi soldiers and the accompanying civilian collateral damage. This is so because it is "obvious" that Christians come from the civilized west while those "filthy Arabs" come from the barbarous east. Who cares that when the entire West was in the dark ages, those uncivilized Arabs had high mathematics, astronomy, literature, agriculture, arts and on and on and on. A mere glitch in our reasoning. Please feel free to disregard. As everybody knows the West is civilized and everybody else is…well…not. And since history is written by the West, it must be true.
ISIL GOALS
Before we add our commentary, let's understand what is ISIL's goal. Their goal is simple; to establish a Caliphate (or Islamic State), first in the East and then use this base of operations to expand world-wide. Their plan is to use the so-called "domino" theory whereby knocking out one country at the time, this leading to the fall of the next one ("we don't recognize any border").
In order to do so, their priority is to convert, expulse or kill everybody who is not a "believer" of "their" faith. They do so with total disregard of color, race or religion. Killing (massively) one of their means or operation.
They have recently "established" a provisional Caliphate on the "liberated" lands of Iraq and Syria. This is an important step.
ISIL draws its power from four sources:
- Military strategy originates from their members formerly of the Ba'athist party from Saddam's army and government.
- Religious beliefs originate probably in an extreme version of the Salfi-Wahhabi school which mimics as Sunni or to a lesser degree Shia or whatever is more convenient in order to be seen as Islamic and conducting the only effective offensive against the "infidels".
- Money originates from the territory they have conquered in the form of "taxes", donations from faithful rich Arabs and also from the many sources Western governments are supplying in a ridiculous attempt to create a "coalition" where they channel money to groups that will pass it directly to ISIL. As part of this process, they deliberately target "rich" areas with oil reserves or some other type of natural resources.
- Manpower originates from the many young Islamic believers around the world, but primarily from those in the region. Geographically speaking the more one moves away from Iraq/Syria the less support ISIL has.
THE CRYSTAL BALL
Now we are going to dust-off our crystal ball and we will tell you the future. Let's go step-by-step.
ISIL already established a working Caliphate although it remains to be seen "how" working it may actually be. For now they are fully engaged in military operations and politics has therefore been placed aside. This goal has been accomplished.
They are performing "ethnic and religious cleansing" wherever they go, although so far they have not done this at a massive scale simply because most Arabs are indeed of the Islamic faith. So far there is no need to go medieval on this cleansing thing. As such, there has been no international outcry to "do something" about the "millions" of "displaced" people. Concomitantly, there is no international pressure.
Military strength
The military backbone of ISIL are capable military people. As such and for as long as they supply them with cannon fodder to train and weapons, they will be mostly successful in their military endeavours for the simple reason local governments are a joke and have no credibility whatsoever. Opposing military forces have no reason to fight ISIL even more considering that local governments are not religious while ISIL is. Religion trumps non-credible laws.
ISIL has also captured a fair amount of US-provided weapons from the deserting and surrendering local armies. As such and for now they are well provisioned but active wars have very high consumption rates. Bringing ammunition, repair parts and new weapons (particularly large ones) is no easy task. Basically, ISIL's army may be reasonably well armed but they are landlocked. They know that unless they are triumphant and fast, they will simply run out of major weapons. Once they reach this point, they are easy pickings for any army however mediocre it may be.
This is a problem because the US has stepped-up their aerial attacks and the Syrian army has had significant victories. Basically, ISIL is running out of big guns. If everything continues as-is, ISIL will indeed run out of big guns, even if they take Baghdad. Right now, this seems to be the direction of the war.
We must consider that ISIL is threatening the city of Erbil where mayor US corporation have billion-dollar facilities that cannot be moved. Ergo, the US will intervene to deny this city to ISIL. Never underestimate the capacity to influence the US Government that big corporations have. For this reason (and other oil fields in Iraq) it is unlikely that the US government will simply sit on the sidelines.
Religion
The way in which ISIL practices religion is highly inflammatory and specifically designed to appeal to "subdued" believers who are "tired" of Western "denials" and "corrupt" Eastern Arab states (however much money they are channelling to ISIL). Their religious practices are mostly centered on "revenge" thus making young idiots believe that Islam can be "avenged" against those evil, evil infidels. Basically, that's it. There really isn't that much of substance in ISIL's religion other than propaganda (cleverly designed) to attract youth. All of ISIL's religious appearances and strategies are specifically designed to exult "strength" and "power", this being a very addictive drug.
As such it is expected that for as long as they don't suffer crippling defeats, they will continue with this very successful tactic. There really isn't a religious Islamic leader anywhere in the Arab world (or outside it) capable of offering an alternative.
Money
ISIL's overall strategy depends, in ultimate analysis, of becoming "self-sufficient". This is, they fully accept that eventually all external sources of money will dry-out. It is for this reason that they are very active at conquering lands with valuable resources (natural or otherwise). The problem with this tactic is that, again, they are landlocked. One thing is for them to own oil field and a completely different one is for them to be able to extract, move and sell the oil. Their ultimate source of riches is tied to their land and if (or shall we say when) the US finally decides to act, they will lose it fast. Once this happens, their defeat is inevitable. Wars cannot be fought on credit. This is the most likely scenario.
Manpower
ISIL sees itself as having agents, sympathizers and potential cannon fodder in all the countries of the region. They are partially correct, however, the degree of sympathy or willingness to join them is directly related to their military success. Nobody wants to side with losers or die for them. For as long as they are successful, they will continue to receive recruits. Once this trend is reverse, recruitment will drop significantly.
The Fictitious Future
What all this boils down to is that it is likely that ISIL will be militarily defeated. Their victories are not settled nor stable. It is very likely that in ultimate instance, a US-coordinated sort of "coalition" will be in play. Once the politicians from other countries come to the realization that their jobs are at stake, they will quickly get into action but this won't prevent them from blackmailing US as every "decent" politician would do. The most likely scenario is thus that a coalition (including US boots on the ground) will defeat ISIL. We must never forget that so far ISIL's military victories were not the acts of military geniuses but simply good, average planning and a lot of good luck and surrendering. For any intent and purpose it is clear that ISIL is incapable of fighting a real war against a standard modern army. This will be its demise.
So basically, ISIL will lose in the end.
Hurrah! The East will be saved. The West will be saved. And peace and prosperity will forever cover those lands.
And if you believe that one, we strongly suggest you move to US and enlist in its "glorious" army.
But then again, there are other scenarios although they are less likely. It is possible that ISIL, when faced with impending destruction, decides to negotiate and simply keep the existing conquered lands thus establishing the Caliphate from where the glory of Islam will…blah…blah…blah… This could be possible if other countries are too exhausted (Syria), or too "touchy" (Turkey) or too "messy" (Iraq) to do anything about it. Furthermore, US corporations may decide to pay a "tax" to ISIL instead of having to lobby the US government for unending "protection" which will last until the next president is sworn in.
Note: please see the Glossary if you are unfamiliar with certain words.
