THE REAL FUTURE
The real future is somewhat different. Regardless of what may happen in the upcoming and proximal future, it won't be definitive. Not at all.
As we have said many times, the problem is not ISIL or Al-Qaeda or some of the other hundred "organization" out there. The problem is political evolution. Think about it. ISIL exists because there are young people willing to join it. A bunch of hardened "operators" and military Iraqis would have been able to accomplish nothing without soldiers. However, soldiers have not yet evolved politically. They are stuck in the Caliphate-Islamic-Jihad mentality and until this changes nothing will indeed change. Yes, the US may be able to mastermind ISIL defeat but in the mid to long term this won't change anything. The next ISIL will soon rise. And then the next one. And the next one and so on until there aren't sufficient soldiers to man it. If history is of any use here, this will take a very long time indeed.
AND THEN WHAT?
At some point in time in the future either ISIL or their religious/political heirs will succeed in creating a true, operational Caliphate or Islamic State or something along those lines. This much is inevitable simply because, again, people cannot jump over a political step. But what will happen then? Will this state be the springboard for the inevitable Islamic conquest of the world? Not a chance.
Why would this be so? No state in the entire history of the world has managed to conquer the world. Many have tried and so far they have all failed. This is a failure rate of 100%. True, there have been large (and quite successful empires "out there") but they all eventually collapsed. Some did so because of internal issues, some due to economic issues and some due to external and powerful rival empires.
Think Iran for example. At the time of the revolution most political commentators, gurus and future forecasted were absolutely sure that Iran will become the source for global domination through subversion and terrorism backed by Islamic religion. Yet, none of that happened. In part this was true because of "containment" policies that major players used, but mostly because Iranian leaders soon realize that one thing is to take over a country filled with people with similar views and an entire different story is to take over the world with an almost infinite number of views. Resistance is futile. The Iranian revolution was assimilated into the world. Gone.
Most people have the same view about ISIL. The revolution is here. It will threaten the world. OMG!!!! We are all screwed!!! No. Not really. Even in the unlikely scenario that ISIL does end up owning a Caliphate, it will manage to go nowhere. Take a look at what happened with the Khmer-Rouge in Vietnam. In many respects they were identical to ISIL but with much more discipline. Today they are reduced to museum guides in a fully capitalist Vietnam.
ISIL is invincible until their people evolves and then they will be defeated by themselves. Both outcomes are fixed. They will both happen.
BUT WE WANT A SOLUTION NOW!
Fair enough. What's the point of having a political theory if it does not provide workable solutions to current problems.
The solution is quite simple. Let them be. Let them conquer whatever they want to conquer or as far as other people allow them to go. If they want to invade Turkey, then let Turkey decide what it is that they want to do. If ISIL wants to continue to take over Syria, let Syria decide what to do. Having a coalition to attack and "destroy" ISIL is pointless because it will survive. These kinds of conflicts and beliefs can only be evolved over by letting nature take its course, however cruel and despicable it may sound. Consider this. In the world today there are Nazis and there are Communists but, are there large groups of people anywhere in the world sufficient to re-create a Nazi or a Communist state? Of course not. The vast majority of the people have evolved beyond that point. ISIL is no exception. If anything ISIL is the textbook example of an empty ideology that will burn itself out. This does not mean that Islam will disappear, no, far from it. Once people evolve passing the Jihad stage of Islam, it will become a far better religion but, more importantly, without external influence. Islam will evolve from the inside out. People will overwhelmingly choose better and non-violent ways.
The Libertarian way is simply to let ISIL evolve. They are right now in a micro-step in their evolution. They are a toddler who is having too much fun throwing food at their parents. Eventually, this toddler will grow up and realize that it is not a good idea to throw food at the very people who are providing it. Eventually, it will realize that their main obligation is to provide food for the next generation.
We wish there would be another way, but it isn't. Political evolution always win. Every single example of a country that was conquered by another one that we can think of, eventually ended up evolving no matter how long the wait. Take for example Slovenia. Slovenia existed under the Austro-Hungarian empire for more than 1000 years. It emancipated only in 1991. Evolution. It is slow but unavoidable.
Any interference can only delay it and when this happens we all suffer because eventually evolution reasserts itself with extreme violent consequences. And so the Libertarian answer to ISIL is let it be. If they attack, defend yourself to the point you wish to defend yourself. Other than that, let evolution take its course. Not even ISIL is evolution-proof!
But is this a good solution? No.
Is this the optimum solution? No.
This is the pragmatic solution that, in the long term, will minimize the suffering of people. In the short term, well… what can we say about people deeply involved in psychotic religious cults?
But then again, the reason why ISIS is capable of doing what it is doing is because of the enabling action of government. Never forget; no government = no repression = no ISIS.
CONCLUSION
ISIL is again in the news and we are, again, forced to write about it. Hopefully this will be the last time. If there is a lesson to be had from these events is this: let people be. But of course, this is not the credo of politicians and religious leaders. They are there not to let people be but to force people to do whatever it is that "laws" (civil or religious) decree that people must do. And so we arrive at the very same conclusion that we arrive almost every single time; remove "authorities" from the loop and problems solve themselves.
Unless you believe you are right and your neighbour is not. Unless you enjoy being told what to do. Unless you believe that your religion and your political view is the only one worth having. That's OK. That's your opinion. One thing though, when somebody else with similar but opposing views comes around to hunt you down like a rabid dog, don't call us for help.
Note: please see the Glossary if you are unfamiliar with certain words.
