In our article The USSR Strikes Again we explained how Putin's master plan to reconstitute Russia will unfold. It would seem that things are accelerating far beyond of what we predicted; they are, however, on the predicted path.
Just a few news from the Ukrainian newspaper Ekspres.
- Less than a thousand separatists took buildings and in Donetsk (East Ukraine) and demanded a referendum to enter Russia.
- EU ministers are discussing how to stop Russia from re-annexing Moldova and Georgia. The proposed solution is to accelerate their acceptance as EU members.
- The Duma (i.e. Russian's puppet parliament) adopted a law providing for a simplified procedure for granting citizenship to Russian "compatriots - Russian speakers"… wink… wink As indicated by the czar Putin who is of the opinion that it is necessary to grant Russian citizenship to former USSR citizens, their direct descendants born in the USSR or even the Russian empire… wink…wink
- FSB has confirmed its interference in Ukrainian internal affairs
- Latvia suspended a TV station (in Russian) and one of Latvian European Parliamentarians is under suspicion of being a Russian agent.
- Latvian's ex-president expressed that "we have to worry" about Russia.
- Russian-Belarus trade approaches the 3 billion USD mark while defense-industry cooperation is being bolstered. The Treaty on Formation of the Community of Russia and Belarus was signed on April 2nd.
- There are talks about re-nuclearizing Belarus
- Armenian president and Putin held bilateral talks in Dec 2013, leaning towards preferring a Rusian-controlled Customs Union over EU.
- Azerbaijan is worried because Russian troops in Georgia and Armenia will "never leave". Azerbajanis are feeling Putin's "squeeze" to join the Customs Union.
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- Kyrgyzstan sells all its airports to a Russian state-owned company after US companies fled. In the meantime, this state keeps maintaining "strong ties" to Russia.
- Bulgaria is getting nervous about Russian military aircrafts flowing just a little too close to its borders, while there is a growing political movement that may attempt to topple Bulgarian government over their lack of Russian support. Let's remember that Bulgaria is almost entirely dependent on Russian energy. About 30% of its population supports Ukrainian re-union with Russia.
- Rumania is fully dependent upon Russian energy, while its president speaks about Russian territorial ambitions stretching all the way East (and over) Rumania due to its Russian population.
And so on and on and on. Go ahead, don't believe us. Just google this information by yourself. We only scratched the surface.
Each small piece of bad news means very little by itself, but if you put everything together, it begins to make sense. All this "irrationality" that is being seen in Russian actions is indeed madness, but madness with a purpose. Its intent is to use the old one-two punch:
- De-stabilize
- Step-in providing a solution… at a price
On balance of probabilities, we believe that Putin will succeed.
But the most important lesson, one that almost everybody will miss, is the root cause of this success. In a very real sense, Putin is simply acting the wishes of the Eastern European people. He is the catalyst that is accelerating the inevitable. This is so because as we mentioned in Political Systems Lifecycle all political changes are transitional. People from East Europe are simply not ready for Democracy. They haven't outgrown their dictatorial needs; however, they do want something better. This something better is the pseudo-democracy that Putin offers under the new-and-improved USSR (or its façade, the Customs Union). This offers a sense of strong authority while at the same time provides more freedom and prosperity than under the old USSR.
Of course! people will shift towards Russia. The only question left is when and in which order… which is not an important question anyways.
As this develops and Russia begins to annex former USSR countries, Western people will look in awe and terror while being powerless to avoid it. And that's the real tragedy. All these people believing that they can avoid this and that they should. Rubbish! People do not evolve just because it is convenient to other people.
What Western countries should do is exactly what Western countries won't do. This is, let the people from the East evolve some more. True, there are risks in such a decision, but anything else will only protract the inevitable, which means more suffering. Let's be clear. People in the East will suffer under Russia; this much is inevitable. But do they have to suffer going into this process too, simply because the West won't accept this? Of course not.
In the end, this evolutionary process does nothing by emphasize the unfairness of current political systems, where people are dragged into one political system and then into another against their will. Whichever direction Eastern countries take, a large portion of their population will be unhappy for no reason. Why should they be controlled by a political system they don't want, just because the so-called majority so desires? It makes no sense. Alas, there are no shortcuts. The so-called majority must learn by itself. There is no other way.
And so, we are witnessing history. If you do not live in the East, dear reader, look through the window and ponder and remember how history is developing right before your eyes. Many decades from now, you will be able to tell the young ones that you were there when it happened and you saw it all. Evolution is inevitable, but so is suffering. But this really is for our own good.
Alas, there is no free lunch. But this one, is going to be gigantic. We are witnessing the regression of a political clock that run too fast and went ahead of itself. Inevitable.
We are lucky and unlucky. We have evolved past these political systems and we already know the future. However, we are also unlucky, because knowing the future we also know that in all probability, we won't see it become reality.
And so we toil forward, always wishing for illumination in your path so that you may also evolve with us. Or perhaps not, perhaps you are not yet ready. Then, may that path be easy on you.
Note: please see the Glossary if you are unfamiliar with certain words.