Well… sort of. Russia annexed Crimea and the world as we know it is coming to an end. Well… not yet. Let's take the time to analyze this properly.
THE PLAN
Let's begin by stating that Putin (the Russian czar) is ex–KGB. This means that he is as cold–blooded as it gets. It also means that he is a strategic thinker more than a tactical one (i.e. longer term not shorter term). It also means that he has "The Plan". Remember the following line from the movie Red October: "Son, Ruskies don't take a dump without a plan". How true.
So, what's Putin's plan? This is no secret. Strategically (i.e. long term) he wants to rebuild the USSR empire. Of course, he won't call it USSR, it will have some other politically appropriate name, but let's not delude ourselves; Russia will be in charge as it always was in the region.
THE EXECUTION
The plan has been put in motion many years ago. Of course, we don't have the details, but we do have some general highlights; they are:
- Become the de-facto, permanent, ruler of Russia – Done!
- Control the economy through a fully dependent oligarchy – Done!
- Control the oligarchy through a fully dependent "security" apparatus – Done!
- Improve and increase the military – Done!
- Create a "free market" area as an excuse for the first step of peaceful annexation (Customs Union) – Done!
- Support pro–Russian governments and dictatorships in the region – Ongoing.
- Support pro–Russian secession movements in the region – Ongoing.
- Move swiftly using the military to lock–in any territorial annexation – Ongoing.
- Instigate pro–Russian secession movements in the region – Probably Ongoing.
- Instigate changes in governments in former USSR republics ensuring they are pro–Russian – Probably Ongoing.
- Annex former USSR republics – Not yet.
- De–stabilize former USSR countries which are currently NATO members – Ongoing?
- Instigate government changes in former USSR countries which are currently NATO members – Ensure new governments are pro–Russian – Not yet.
- Order former USSR republics and currently NATO members to renounce NATO – Not yet.
- Annex former USSR republics no longer NATO members – Not yet.
Do you see the big picture now?
Do you see the path?
Do you see all the dominos in motion?
How do we know that this picture is accurate? Because it is textbook KGB. Ruskies are sticklers for what it works. They much prefer an old, tried–and–true tactic than a new one.
WHO'S NEXT?
We don't know, but what we do know is that NATO countries will be last. Why take chances if it is not necessary. The pressure on these countries will be much larger if they are surrounded by Russian–friendly countries. The domino effect yet again.
We also know that Ukraine must be amongst the first republics to return to the fold. Why? Because the remaining republics are miniscule in terms of economic raw materials and resources. And why is this important? Because Russia is not an industrial giant; it is a raw materials giant; particularly energy. And what does Ukraine have in abundance? Oil and gas. Strategically speaking, this is wise. Why spent decades building up an industrial infrastructure if the same goals can be achieved very quickly simply by controlling raw materials?
And so, we can assume that Putin's shopping list of countries would look something like this:
Group #1:
- Ukraine
Group #2:
- Belarus
- Moldavia
- Georgia
- Armenia
- Azerbaijan
- Kazakhstan
- Uzbekistan
- Turkmenistan
- Kirgizstan
- Tajikistan
Group #3
- Albania
- Bulgaria
- Czech Republic
- Estonia
- Latvia
- Poland
- Romania
- Slovakia
- Lithuania
HOW IS IT GOING?
Well, so far so good; for Putin, of course. Most of these countries are in turmoil in one way or another. When the causes of this "unrest" are not political, they are economic (conveniently motivated by Russia). Many of the governments of these countries are failing miserably, and why would they not? They don't have any experience or economic power; they are corrupt to the bone, greedy, power hungry and clueless. In other words, they are ripe for the picking. Actually, Putin does not even have to do much more than the occasional stir but mostly wait. They will collapse on their own accord. Many are already half way there.
SMALL DETOUR
Why Crimea? Simple. Russia absolutely, positively and definitively needs the port for their naval forces. Other than a military strategic value, Crimea does not exist. So, Crimea was a detour, do not be confused by this fact.
Note: please see the Glossary if you are unfamiliar with certain words.
