Some time ago we posted the article The Great Chinese End Game where we posited (i.e. postulated) that the ultimate Chinese goal is world domination. This could not be otherwise since the ultimate goal of every single rising empire is world domination. In order to support this goal, the Chinese government hatched the biggest army in the world today (see The Great Chinese Threat).
If you are a student of history as we are and you see historical 1 + 1 you must conclude that the final outcome will be 2. Yet, we have had received some metaphorical flak (i.e. antiaircraft fire) for our views. The main argument goes that China is remarkably well-behaved and it is not exhibiting expansionist tendencies. And to a degree this is correct. China has showed an incredible restraint regarding its use of its military. But then again, a frontal assault was never in the Chinese plan. The plan is to expand and influence over very long periods of time and use the military to counter any other military threat. The Chinese military are there simply to ensure that "other" means won't be interfered with. The Chinese military are there simply to provide a credible MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction). Obviously Chinese leaders will utilize Lenin's method (“Probe with a bayonet. If you meet steel, stop. If you meet mush, then push”) with their military but only to the extent that they can reasonably guarantee that there will be no repercussions. They can't afford to enrage the wrong military power because although their military may be the largest, they are not as large when it comes to force multipliers. Basically, they are still vulnerable.
But there is more. Chinese expansionism dates back thousands of years and it is still ongoing. For a -very- recent account of its successes (1949 to 2011) see Wikipedia (Territorial changes of the People's Republic of China). Additionally, most people see China as a unified empire, when in reality is a collection of individual territorial, cultural and religious pieces held together by force by a central power. And the Chinese do not give up.
CHINESE HOMEGROWN TERRORISM
Take for example Xingjian ("New Territory") which today is described as the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. Originally in the 1750's said territory was "annexed" by Chinese soldiers who have been in there ever since. This territory is primarily populated by the people that used to live there when the "annexation" happened. They call themselves Uighur (mostly Sunni Muslims) and they are really, really pissed-off. It would seem that for some strange reason they dislike all the "benefits" that Chinese rule has brought them over the last 250+ years. Such "benefits" included systematic and brutal assaults on Uighur's culture, religion and ways of living, particularly during the so-called Cultural Revolution continuing even today although to a lesser degree.
As such they have begun to organize themselves and attack the Chinese invaders. Some statistics:
- In 2014 there were 6 attacks on Chinese police and politicians with a grand total of 176 dead in the region.
- In Kunming (outside the region) there was an attack that left 29 dead and 143 injured.
- The last attack in the region resulted in 59 dead attackers, 215 arrested attackers and 37 dead Chinese.
Consider this. In the last "terrorist" outbreak in France just a few weeks ago, the total number of deaths (including "suspects") was 20. Twenty dead people and the entire world notices. Meanwhile on the other side of the planet there were 176 deaths (mostly stabbings and brutal hackings - yes hacking as is axe hacking) and nobody notices. Nobody knows. Why?
Because the Chinese oligopoly does not want the world to know. The Chinese oligopoly is fully invested in maintaining its territorial "gains", even if they go back 250+ years! The region of Xingjian is rapidly becoming the new Chechnya or the new Vietnam or the new Diem-Biem-Phu. With one difference, the Chinese won't give up. One must understand that contrary to popular belief, when it comes to Chinese oligarchs their mind set is still the old mindset, the old empire mindset. Take for example Yugoslavia. Parts of this artificial country were under either Austro-Hungarian or Russian domination for over 1000 years! The lesson here, dear reader, is that empires do not give up and walk away. They simply tighten oppression levels and the Chinese are no different.
NEW CHINESE EXPANSIONISM
Take a look at what China is doing; they have used their recently acquired wealth as a military weapon. They have joined with Russia in what it is, in effect, the largest quasi-free market in the globe. They are in the process of making the Renminbi (CNY) an international "reserve" currency. They are scouring the earth for resources and purchasing them wherever they can find them. They are challenging the IMF and the World bank with their own equivalent (see The Economic Side Of TEOTWAWKI). They are purchasing gold as if it is going out of style (see The USD Is Heading Into The Intensive Care Unit). They are already the world supplier of cheap stuff and their quality processes are getting better and better by the minute. They are already big players in mid-priced goods and services and beginning to make inroads into luxury items. Basically, China is succeeding in becoming the manufacturing centre of the world. All these moves and more are critical to Chinese expansionism. Once these mechanisms are fully in place, there will be no going back without a gigantic economic earthquake…and the Chinese know this. They planned this. They are executing this. Once the plan is fulfilled, no major financial event will be able to take place without Chinese agreement. Just like the US did when with the Bretton-Woods agreement made the USD a "reserve" currency. Just like dropping two atomic bombs on Japan accomplished on a world-wide scale. Ten or twenty years from now Chinese world-wide influence will be a given and most people would not understand how it happened nor when did it happened. Well… it is happening now and here. It is just that it is so slow and so under-visible that you are not seeing it. It is hidden in plain sight. Trade agreements here, purchases there, no intermediaries over there, payable in CNYs, technology exports everywhere and multiple offers and custom manufacturing for anything that you may possibly wish. Oh, and did we mention a global net of S&H? We can deliver anywhere. It is not globalization, it is Chinification.
PLAN THE EXECUTION AND EXECUTE THE PLAN
Of course! China is expanding and in a typical Chinese fashion it is doing it so slowly that its moves are lost in the background noise. US, on the other hand, operates under the doctrine of "disruption", the idea being that the US is so ahead of everything that all they need to do is to keep disrupting Chinese operations and the rest will take care of itself. Silly US leaders. They believe that they can somehow interfere with the Chinese pseudo-free market. They will be overwhelmed. Eventually. The Chinese planned for it. They are in no hurry. They don't have a 4 or 5 or 6 years electoral horizon. They think in terms of 100+ years. Get used to this. China is expanding and there is nothing that can stop it. Of course there will be ups and downs and one or two truly global financial catastrophes for which 2008 was only a teaser. But there is one consolation. No empire in the entire history of the world managed to conquer the entire world. Rome came close. This is so because the main problem is insoluble. Empires are viable only as long as the periphery sends wealth to the centre. But in order to maintain this artificial state of events, the centre must maintain an efficient system of terror and submission. And these systems are expensive. There comes a point at which the expense matches the extracted wealth and at that point the empire stops. Rome stopped in Germany. Rome stopped in UK. Why? It had become prohibitively expensive and at that point the decay of the Roman Empire began. The same will happen to the Chinese, but today we are far, far away from this point.
Arrogant people in arrogant countries will continue to believe that this is not possible; that this will never happen. The biggest trick that Chinese oligarchs are and will continue to pull off is the trick of deception. To trick their enemies (i.e. competing empires) into a deceptive sense of relaxation. China is not and has no intentions of expanding. Sleep tight. Right!
Right now the Chinese are expanding. Get used to the idea since there is nothing you can do about it. Granted. Chinese expansionism is not your typical colonial expansionism but it will yield colonies the same. Said colonies will pay tribute to the centre one way or another. Same as they do today with US or Russia or EU. This much is inevitable. The good news is that China will never achieve world hegemony for the same reasons that other empires failed. Even more good news is that the new Chinese overlords will only demand tribute and it is unlikely that they will interfere otherwise. It has been tried before, you know? Romans invented it (Pax Romana) and even this did not save them from decline. Long live political evolution. Well…we would actually prefer it would be short lived since Libertarianism is coming and we can't wait to see what happens next!
That's our point of view. Yours may differ. You may believe that living under the iron thumb of empire A is better than to do so under empire B. That's OK. That's your right. We, on the other hand, are all for empires of one: every one of us.
Note: please see the Glossary if you are unfamiliar with certain words.